000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 130 NM S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 NM 
SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK 
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF 
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY 
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W ALONG 9N87W 8N92W 11N98W 
11N111W TO 10N120W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N130W 
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 82W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 136W-139W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THIS 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E 
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER 
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE 
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. 
 
$$ 
PAW