000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182055
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
2205 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE POLO WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 18/2100 UTC. 
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.9W AT 18/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 155 NM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 NM SE 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 
105W-110W. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES 
THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO TROPICAL STORM. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD 
BEGIN FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...RAINFALL AND 
SWELLS REMAIN AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N86W 7N91W 11N98W TO 
11N120W WHERE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 28N125W. NW SWELL 
BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT OVER A SMALL 
SECTION AND WILL RECEDE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 
HOURS. 

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF 
THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 
130W. THIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E 
OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER 
PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE 
COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO SAT. 
 
$$ 
PAW