000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180239
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 18/0300 UTC. 
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 104.6W AT 18/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT ABOUT 155 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS 80 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM SW OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 102W-106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N 
BETWEEN 100W-108W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL 
TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL 
FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY 
NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 8N87W 12N93W TO 
14N99W THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 13N106W 12N115W TO 
10N124W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N127W TO 13N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
97W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
                                                 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N126W TO 30N127W WHERE 
IT DISSIPATES TO 23N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS 
MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF 
THE ITCZ. 

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE... 
SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OTHER THAN IN THE IMMEDIATE 
VICINITY OF HURRICANE POLO.
 
$$ 
PAW