000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162159 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 100.4W OR ABOUT 260 MILES S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC SEP 16. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH POLO TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 40 KT WITH GUSTS 50 KT...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE ON THU. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N99W TO 08.5N103W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO AND MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 113.5W AT 2100 UTC SEP 16 OR ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 MILES S OF PUERTO PENASCO MEXICO. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. ODILE IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 06 KT...AND ODILE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK INTO THIS EVENING...THEN TURN MORE N-NE AND SLOW DOWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT AND ODILE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS...THEN OF COURSE RAPID WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER NW MEXICO LATE WED. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 28N. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 9 INCHES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SE ARIZONA... SW NEW MEXICO...AND FAR W TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LARGE SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN CROSSING THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT 09N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 14N104W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W POLO NEAR 14N104W AND CONTINUES SW TO 10N126W...THEN TURNS NW TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW AT 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...IN A CLUSTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N107W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 12N111W TO 11.5N118W AND FROM 10N123W TO 09N120W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 13N119W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND 21N140W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 26N140W. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AT 20-25 KT TO THE N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. MIXED NW AND S SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8-9 FT W OF A LINE FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W ON WED AND THU WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON THU. LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF 105W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO THROUGH THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS. $$ NELSON