000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 99.4W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC 
SEP 16 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS...AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. 
POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFY...REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS. 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE IS POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO AS POLO MOVES 
CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST. SEE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
                                         
TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 113.2W 994 MB AT 1500 
UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO HUG THE EAST 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ODILE 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER 
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. 
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS 
OF NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM 
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N86W TO 11N95W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N103W TO 14N111W TO 10N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12N138W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 10N BETWEEN 
89W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 124W 
AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 
16N119W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AND CENTRAL WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...DRAGGING THE WEAKENING FRONT EASTWARD OVER 
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. 
8-10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THU.
 
LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO 
THROUGH THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL