000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161022 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 27.4N 112.7W 992 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NARROW LANDMASS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 25 NM OF CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAY BRIEFLY STRADDLE THE EASTERN COASTLINE TODAY...THEN MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WED WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM POLO...THE 17TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS SEASON. TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 16 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. THE CENTER OF POLO IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM NE OF THE CENTER WAS SHIFTING WWD ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFFSHORE WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AHEAD CHURNED UP BY ODILE ARE EXPECTED LIMIT POLO TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO AS POLO MOVES CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR NEAR 23N109W 1007 MB MOVING N-NE 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW HAS BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT WILL RACE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THROUGH THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE COAST OF SINALOA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS AND SEAS TODAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 12N90W TO T.D. POLO NEAR 11.9N 98.4W 1005 MB...WHERE IT IS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N109W TO 11N124W TO 12N132W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N138W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 08N E OF 91W TO THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N128W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N121W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N139W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 30N138.5W THROUGH 29N140W TO NEAR MAUI. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 18-20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS E OF 110W. THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTLINES TODAY AND WED. BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THIS SWELL HAS MERGED WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEHIND THE EXITING POLO THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS AND THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS. $$ STRIPLING