000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160252 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 26.6N 112.1W 990 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 21N109W ARE MOVING N-NE 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT...300 NM SW QUADRANT AND 390 NM NW QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW NEAR 10N98W TO NEAR 18N95W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 12N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N98W 1007 MB TO 16N106W TO 11N124W TO 12N132W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1008 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF 08N E OF 87W TO THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 14N W OF 134W AND WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N131W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N121W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N142W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 32N138W THROUGH 28N140W TO MAUI. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. THE 1844 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED...BUT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OVER 8 FT HAVE MERGED WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS AND THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS. $$ SCHAUER