000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 24.7N 111.3W 955 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 15 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 150 SW SEMICIRCLES. ODILE IS MOVING ALMOST DIRECTLY UP THE BAJA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN MAX WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. THE LARGE WIND CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA E OF THE CENTER AND DRIVE LARGE WAVES AND SWELL NORTHWARD...PRODUCING VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE ENTIRE GULF. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE VERY LARGE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 18N110W ARE MOVING NE 15 KT. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE INCREASED ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AS THE LOW IS BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SW AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS. THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE ELONGATED CENTER... EXCEPT 45 NM SE QUADRANT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 12N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E NEAR 18N110W TO 12N120W TO 12N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1014 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 23N131W TO W OF ODILE NEAR 24N115W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY TUE. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS ARE MERGING WITH THE SWELL GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING A LARGE AREA OF MIXED SWELL OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 125W. $$ MUNDELL