000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 20.0N 108.2W 941 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER. ODILE HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. A VERY LARGE AREA OF STRONG SW WINDS EXTENDS OUT TO 400 NM S AND SW OF ODILE...DRAWING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ODILE...REACHING COASTAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SINALOA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN...PRODUCING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY... PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.0N 113.9W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 14 MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. AN EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION IS ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ODILE...AND IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY MONDAY. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N93W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THEN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY TUE OR WED. THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N93W 1008 MB TO 11N98W...THEN RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N136W TO 24N118W SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 28N142W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THE NEXT TWO DAYS... WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER N CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. S WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW ON MON. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY LATE SUN TO YIELD HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS/ $$ MUNDELL