000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 19.1N 107.3W 941 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 14 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM. ODILE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A VERY LARGE AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXTENDS OUT TO 400 NM TO THE S AND SW OF ODILE AND IS DRAWING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AROUND AND INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ODILE...AND ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SINALOA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 14.9N 115.3W 1007 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 14 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. AN EASTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY AS IT BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF ODILE. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N74W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N94W 1008 MB TO 12N98W..WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED FROM ODILE...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N113W TO T.D. THIRTEEN-E TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N133W 1010 MB TO 08.5N138W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 49N137W THROUGH 30N137W TO 25N115W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 800 NM NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PINCHING OFF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER N CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW ON MON. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS REACHES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY LATE SUN TO YIELD HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS/ $$ STRIPLING