000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140258 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 17.9N 106.5W 962 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 14 MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.1N 116.1W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 14 MOVING ESE OR 120 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM SE QUADRANT AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE. AN EASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N92W 1007 MB...THEN CONTINUES AT LOW PRES NEAR 16N117W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W 1011 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 49N136W THROUGH 30N137W TO 22N113W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 1000 NM NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PINCHING OFF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER N CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW ON MON. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS LIES FROM NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY LATE SUN. $$ SCHAUER