000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132135 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 17.0N 106.2W 971 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 13 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 111W. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ODILE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MON. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.5N 116.8W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 13 MOVING E-SE OR 120 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE NE IN THE WAKE OF ODILE. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N92W 1007 MB...THEN CONTINUES AT LOW PRES NEAR 16N117W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W 1011 MB TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 50N136W THROUGH 32N136W TO 20N113W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 1000 NM NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PINCHING OFF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER N CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW ON MON. THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS LIES FROM NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY LATE SUN. $$ SCHAUER