000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

HURRICANE ODILE LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 
13 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 300 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W IN STRONG SW 
MONSOON FLOW FEEDING INTO ODILE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS 
AS ODILE MOVES NW BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND STARTS TO 
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY TUE. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE WILL 
AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. 
LARGE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE W COAST OF MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE 
AND DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 117.2W 1007 MB 
AT 1500 UTC SEP 13 MOVING ESE OR 110 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH THE T.D. EXPECTED 
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUN THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. SEE LATEST 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N89W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N93W 1007 MB TO 14N95W..THEN RESUMES FROM T.D. SIXTEEN-E 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N132W 1011 MB TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH W OF 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N136W TO 27N123W TO 20N114W. THE 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN 
EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS IS SWEEPING ACROSS FORECAST WATERS W OF 
115W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL STRETCH FROM THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO SW FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THEN REACH MUCH 
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT 
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS 
GENERATED BY ODILE BY SUN. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL