000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 16.2N 105.3W 994 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 13 
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM NE 
QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM...EXCEPT 90 NM N 
QUADRANT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY 
NIGHT. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER OFFICE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.6N 118.1W 1007 MB AT 0300 
UTC SEP 13 MOVING E-SE OR 110 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 210 NM W QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS 
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. SEE LATEST 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 11N89W TO 
09N96W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N126W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 
300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 88W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 
87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS W OF 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

1027 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 51N137W EXTENDS A WEAK 
RIDGE THROUGH A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N136W TO 20N115W. THE 
RIDGE IS SQUEEZED N OF THE AREA BETWEEN LOW PRES OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST TO ITS EAST AND A DEEP LAYER LOW N-NE OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ITS W. THIS COMPROMISED RIDGE IS SUPPORTING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 
SECONDS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EQUATOR W OF 115W. IT WILL 
STRETCH FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS SAT 
AFTERNOON AND REACH MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICAN SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH N AND MERGE 
WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY SUN. 
 
$$ 
SCHAUER