000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122143 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 15.6N 104.8W 994 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 12 IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.9N 119.1W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 12 MOVING E-NE OR 070 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 12N95W... THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N122W TO 12N128W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 330 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 51N137W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE THROUGH A DEVELOPING HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N135W TO 20N115W. THE RIDGE IS SQUEEZED N OF THE AREA BETWEEN LOW PRES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL...TO ITS EAST AND A DEEP LAYER LOW N- NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ITS W. THIS COMPROMISED RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 115W LATER THIS EVENING...STRETCH FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST SUN. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH N AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE BY SUN. $$ SCHAUER