000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM ODILE LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.0W 994 MB AT 1500 
UTC SEP 12 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
45 NM N AND 210 NM S OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY W- NW...BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER 
TODAY. LARGE SWELLS FROM THE CYCLONE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE 
SW COAST OF MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF 
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.0W 1006 MB 
AT 0900 UTC SEP 12 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE DEPRESSION FROM STRENGTHENING. 
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD 
WIND CIRCULATION OF ODILE...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW EARLY SUNDAY. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 13N97W... 
THEN RESUMES FROM 16N121W TO 13N128W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH E 
OF 95W...AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM ODILE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN-E MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ARE REASONABLY 
BENIGN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A WEAK 
RIDGE THROUGH 32N137W TO 28N140W...SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES 
OVER FAR W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS 
WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 115W THIS EVENING AND STRETCH FROM 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 
SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AS FAR N AS 05N ALONG 125W 
BY EARLY SUN. 

S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN PANAMA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI AND SAT...WITH RESULTANT SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT BY SAT. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL