000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W 996 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 12 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 45 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS MOVED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.2W 1006 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 12 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND WILL INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM FURTHER STRENGTHENING. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN EAST- SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DEPRESSION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ODILES BROAD WIND CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG ABOUT 96W N OF 14N THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING N OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. THE MAJORITY OF THE WAVE MOISTURE AND ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 10N84W TO 09N89W TO 14.5N98W...WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED FROM ODILE...THEN RESUMES 14N110W TO 17N115W...WHERE IT FRACTURES AGAIN...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N125W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S AND 180 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 125W. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM ODILE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ARE REASONABLY BENIGN. 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 50N137W. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N137W TO 28N140W. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS ONLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES OVER FAR W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 115W BY THIS EVENING AND STRETCH FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS BY SAT EVENING. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AS FAR N AS 05N ALONG 125W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT EVENING AS THE SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE AT SEA...S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN PANAMA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI INTO SAT TO 20 KT...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THERE SAT. $$ STRIPLING