000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120303 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 15.5N 104.7W 996 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 12 MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 45 NM AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND ODILE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.6N 120.0W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 12 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96W N OF 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE N OF 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 14N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N125W TO 11N128W TO 12N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N132W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 78W AND 83W AS WELL AS WITHIN 45 NM OF COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 13N WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM ODILE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ARE REASONABLY BENIGN. 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 50N138W. THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N137W TO 19N115W. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS ONLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES OVER FAR W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 115W BY FRI EVENING AND STRETCH FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO NW FORECAST WATERS BY SAT EVENING. A CRYOSAT PASS FROM AROUND 1700 UTC SHOWED SEAS OVER 8 FT CURRENTLY EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA S OF 01S W OF 100W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH AS FAR N AS 05N ALONG 125W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT EVENING AS THE SW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE AT SEA...S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN PANAMA AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI INTO SAT TO 20 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT HERE SAT. $$ SCHAUER