000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS NEAR 15.1N 104.7W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC 
SEP 11 MOVING W-SW OR 255 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM SE AND W SEMICIRCLES. 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ODILE 
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO 
THROUGH SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. 
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.3N 120.2W 1006 MB AT 2100 
UTC SEP 11 MOVING N-NW OR 335 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 120 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 
AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE 
EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS 
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING FORECAST BY 
SATURDAY, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW 
BY LATE THAT DAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 94W N OF 13N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W 
AND 98W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N. 


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 06N90W TO 
06N100W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N122W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N129W 
1009 MB TO 12N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO PANAMA AND WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE 
AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM ODILE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN-E MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ARE REASONABLY BENIGN. A 
1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N129W IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE OVERTAKEN BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIXTEEN-E OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. S TO SW WINDS BETWEEN PANAMA 
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI 
INTO SAT TO 20 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT HERE BY 
SAT MORNING. 

1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 49N137W. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 32N137W TO 
20N117W. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS ONLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES OVER 
FAR W WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
 
$$ 
SCHAUER