000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

AT 1500 UTC SEP 11...TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS CENTERED NEAR 
15.3N 104.2W MOVING W OR 265 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 210 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS 
SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE MOVING ON A MORE 
NW TRACK THIS WEEKEND. ODILE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH 
HURRICANE INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE 
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 
KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

AT 1530 UTC SEP 11...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS NEAR 16.1N 
119.4W MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 
17N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 93W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 
16N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 15N99W. IT RESUMES AT 
15N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO 
11N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH ODILE AND WITH 
THE LOWS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 89W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
09N EAST OF 80W AND FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF ITCZ BREAKDOWN HAS OCCURRED WITH THE ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM EARLY THIS WEEK BREAKING DOWN INTO THREE 
DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED 
INTO TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
16N119W WHICH IS ALSO DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION. THE THIRD LOW IS THE FARTHEST WEST CENTERED NEAR 
11N128W AND IS CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK IN COMPARISON WITH THE 
OTHER TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 130W.

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N137W EXTENDS 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W...WITH FRESH 
WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH OVER THE NE 
WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. 
 
$$ 
MRF/NAR