000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

AT 0900 UTC SEP 11...TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS CENTERED NEAR 
15.5N 104.0W MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 
111W. ODILE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE MOVING ON A MORE NW TRACK 
THIS WEEKEND. ODILE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE 
INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE MAY AFFECT 
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE 
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N119W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 12N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS 
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 91W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N94W. IT RESUMES AT 
15N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
270 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF ITCZ BREAKDOWN HAS OCCURRED WITH THE ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM EARLY THIS WEEK BREAKING DOWN INTO THREE 
DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED 
INTO TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WHICH IS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
14N119W WHICH IS ALSO DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION. THE THIRD LOW IS THE FARTHEST WEST CENTERED NEAR 
11N126W AND IS CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK IN COMPARISON WITH THE 
OTHER TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N138W EXTENDS 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N128W TO 21N120W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W...WITH 
FRESH WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH OVER THE NE 
WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. 
 
$$ 
AL