000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110301
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU SEP 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 103.5W AS OF 11/0300 
UTC...OR ABOUT 170 NM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MOVING NW OF 
310 DEG AT 03 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM 
OF THE CENTER IN THE SW AND W QUADRANTS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM 
OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN AN OUTER RAIN 
BAND JUST ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 
17N101W TO 18N103W TO 18N105W TO 17N105W. ODILIE IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE IN A NW DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS PARALLEL TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE MAY AFFECT 
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N119W MOVING NW AT 10 KT WITH A PRES 
OF 1009 MB. THIS LOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME UPPER SOUTHERLY 
SHEAR AS IT LIES UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS 
THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER W CENTRAL 
MEXICO AT 25N104W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN 
THE SW AND W QUADRANTS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON 
SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF S-SW 20-30 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW 
IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THERE. THERE 
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR THIS SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST EASTERN 
NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 91W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 12N92W TO 
15N100W. IT RESUMES AT 15N111W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N119W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 10N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED 
WITH ODILE AND WITH THE LOWS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 124W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-135W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 07N132W TO 
06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BROKEN 
DOWN. THREE DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE NOTED. THE FIRST 
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WHICH IS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION. THE SECOND IS A LOW PRES NEAR 14N119W ALSO 
DISCUSSED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. THE THIRD LOW IS A 
RATHER WEAK ONE CENTERED NEAR 12N126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
LOW...EXCEPT 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 
KT ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND S 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
THIS LOW MAY BE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE N 
THROUGH THU...THEN TURNS TO THE NE LATE THU AND FRI.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE S INTO THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY ALONG 
140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE 
WATERS W OF 120W...WITH FRESH WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW PRES 
CENTERS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF NORBERT IS NEAR 
27N117W. THIS CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR 
SOONER.
 
$$ 
AGUIRRE