000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110145 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 103.2W AS OF 10/2100 
UTC...OR ABOUT 175 NM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MOVING NW OF 
320 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 19N106W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM 
OF THE CENTER IN THE W SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 13N101W TO 17N103W. ODILIE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A NW 
DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N118W WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM W AND 90 NM 
NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE 
SWATH OF S-SW 20-30 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THERE. THERE IS A HIGH 
PROBABILITY IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 91W N OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT.. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE WAVE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 12N93W TO 16N110W 
TO 13N120W TO 09N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH 
ODILE AND OTHER LOWS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-88W...AND BETWEEN 118W-123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 79W-
84W...AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BROKEN 
DOWN. THREE DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE NOTED. THE FIRST 
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WHICH IS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION. THE SECOND IS A LOW PRES NEAR 13N118W ALSO 
DISCUSSED ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. THE THIRD LOW IS A 
RATHER WEAK ONE CENTERED NEAR 11N126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
LOW...EXCEPT 180 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS LOW 
MAY BE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE N THROUGH 
THU...THEN TURNS TO THE NE LATE THU AND FRI.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE S INTO THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY ALONG 
140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE 
WATERS W OF 120W...WITH FRESH WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW 
PRES CENTERS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF NORBERT IS NEAR 
27N117W. THIS CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY 
TO A TROUGH BY EARLY THU.
 
$$ 
AGUIRRE