000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

AT 1500 UTC SEP 10 NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 
14.9N 102.9W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1005 
MB. TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 3 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. ODILE 
IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY THU NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE SW MEXICO COASTLINE. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF SW 
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE 
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WITHIN 240 NM 
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT. THERE IS 
CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST 
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 90W N OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 
90W...AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 10N85W TO 15N103W TO 
13N117W TO 11N126W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH T.S. 
ODILE AND OTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...FROM 
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 100W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF ITCZ BREAKDOWN HAS OCCURRED AS THE ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW BROKEN DOWN INTO 
THREE DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
FIFTEEN-E HAS INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM ODILE WHICH IS 
DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE SECOND 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W AND ALSO DISCUSSED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE THIRD CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 11N126W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE. THIS THIRD CIRCULATIONS HAS SW WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S TO SE 
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT SE OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL GENERALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN EASTWARD TURN AFTER THAT. 

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 45N138W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE S INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 20N140W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W...WITH 
FRESH WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF NORBERT IS NEAR 
28N117W. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
ALREADY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER 
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
FORMOSA/RAMOS