000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

AT 0900 UTC SEP 10 NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E 
WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS MOVING N-
NW OR 335 DEG AT 1 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT 
GUSTING TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E 
IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY TODAY...AND REACH 
HURRICANE INTENSITY LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE SW MEXICO COASTLINE. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF SW 
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND THE 
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 12N116W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. 
THE LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WITHIN 
240 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITH SEAS REACHING 9 FT. THERE IS 
CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST 
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 


...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 88/89W N OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
INTERACTING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 14N98W. IT CONTINUES 
FROM 13N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N125W 
TO 08N135W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ 
WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF ITCZ BREAKDOWN HAS OCCURRED AS THE ACTIVE 
MONSOON TROUGH OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW BROKEN DOWN INTO 
THREE DISCREET LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE HAS 
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WHICH IS DISCUSSED 
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N116W AND ALSO DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION ABOVE. THE THIRD CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N125W 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
SW AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. THIS THIRD CIRCULATIONS HAS 
ENHANCED FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW WITH SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT 
RANGE SE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL 
GENERALLY DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N138W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
20N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER 
THE WATERS W OF 120W...WITH FRESH WINDS NORTHWARD OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION OF 
NORBERT CONTINUES NEAR 28N118W. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS ALREADY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TODAY AND 
DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. 
 
$$ 
AL