000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N102W AND REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. STRONGEST 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 106W. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG AND 
IMMEDIATELY INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO 
ANGEL AND MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD. 
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EASTERN PACIFIC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 24N ALONG 87W MOVING W AT 10-
15 KT. A SMALL PORTION OF THE WAVE IMPACTS THE EAST PACIFIC 
REGION NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 10N. MOST OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THIS EVENING FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 10N90W TO 1007 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 14N102W TO 14N112W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N116W TO 
1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N125W TO 10N136W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
10N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
08N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W... 
AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W-SW OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN TO ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N121W. THE INFLUENCE OF 
THIS RIDGING ALOFT IMPACTS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS 
N OF 20N PROVIDING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT CENTERED OFF 
THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST NEAR 28N118W WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT 
ON THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N-NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 44N139W THAT EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA NEAR 30N130W EXTENDING TO NEAR 20N120W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W. 

THE LOW NEAR 11N116W AT 1009 MB IS FORECAST TO DRIFT IN A 
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE 
THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N125W MOVES TO THE NE PER GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE. SW FLOW S OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS MAINTAINING A RANGE OF 
8 TO 10 FT WITHIN SW SWELL.

$$ 
HUFFMAN