000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE SEP 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N100W. LATEST AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N100W TO 15N102W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N102W TO 16N104.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N98W. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND MANZANILLO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NW. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRES NORTHWARD ALONG 100W TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 19N100W. CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS MORE TIED IN WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW. SEE ABOVE. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA ALONG 85W MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS PORTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE BELOW. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO 10N133W. ITCZ FROM 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W...WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W- 100 AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-117W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR SW TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SW TO 23N124W TO NEAR 14N134W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 13N109W. A NE TO WIND FLOW UPPER WIND FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N100W IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION TIED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WESTWARD TO NEAR 100W S OF 10N WHERE IT ERODES IN DRIER AIR. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED WESTWARD TO THE N OF 20N W TO NEAR 115W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN SW OF THE FIRST RIDGE IS HELPING MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N120W TO 15N133W. NW OF THE FIRST RIDGE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE STABLE AND DRY UNDER MODERATE TO SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1026 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N141W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N132W EXTENDING TO NEAR 18N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W. THE LOW PRES NEAR 12N113W OF 1008 MB IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE THE LOW NEAR 12N124W MOVES TO THE NE PER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. SW FLOW S OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 28N118W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE