000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE SEP 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1008 MB IS THE RESULT OF A 
PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO FURTHER DEVELOP OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 99W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE 
INTERACTION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE WITH A PRE EXISTING 
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...AND IS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N99W TO 10N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
OF LOW NEAR 13N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. 
 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
42N141W EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
30N132W EXTENDING TO NEAR 18N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 28N118W WITH 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 
FALLING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

$$ 
AL