000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082235 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 8 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
12N100W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 09N TO 16N MOVING W 15 KT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A MORE 
DEFINITIVE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM 
PROBABILITY OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 16N. AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL ADD INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ABOVE DESCRIBED SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRES AREA AND PROMOTE 
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS STATED ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N96W TO 12N110W TO 
10N115W TO 11N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N130W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S AND 60 NM N OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N139W TO NEAR 20N127W. OVER THE NE 
PART OF THE AREA...THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT IS LOCATED NEAR 
28N 118W. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO TRACK NEWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W. ASCAT DATA INDICATES 20-25 KT 
SW MONSOON FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-115W...AND 
ALSO TO THE S OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRES AREA. SEAS WITHIN 
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 8-9 FT...AND ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SW FLOW INTENSIFIES AS EXPECTED.

SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT WILL CONTINUE 
TO AFFECT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE S CALIFORNIA 
COAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND THE 
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE 
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST 
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL