000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081553 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ABOUT 450 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO NEAR 12N104W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W/104W FROM 09N TO 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG AND NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 14N105W IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO EXIST N OF 12N BETWEEN 100W-105W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT FOR A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 96W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRES AREA HELPING TO PROMOTE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS STATED ABOVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N104W TO 12N114W TO 12N125W TO 10N135W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-90W...AND BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-115W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH A RIDGE SSW TO NEAR 17N118W...AND ANOTHER ONE NE TO WELL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE U.S. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ATTRIBUTED TO THE ANTICYCLONE IS CHANNELING MOISTURE ALOFT TOWARDS THE SW PART OF THE U.S. SIMILARLY...THE N-NE FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS SPILLING MOISTURE SSW OVER THE NW SECTION OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO FIRE UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO N OF 28N AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. NW OF THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH ONLY LOW TO MID CLOUDS NOTED MOVING SW. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N125W SW TO A SMALL UPPER LOW AT 14N136W COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE AREA OF LOW PRES IS HELPING TO INDUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N122W NW TO 13N127W TO 15N130W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA SEWD THROUGH 32N139W TO NEAR 20N127W. OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA...THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT IS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 118.5W WITH A PRES OF 1002 MB. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CIRCULATION...150 NM IN THE W QUADRANT WHERE THE DATA SHOWED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W. ASCAT DATA FROM OVERNIGHT INDICATED SW MONSOON FLOW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W- 115W...AND ALSO TO THE S OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRES AREA. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE IN THE 8-9 FT...AND ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SW FLOW BECOMES PERSISTENT...AND INCREASES AS EXPECTED IF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRES INTENSIFIES. WITH RESPECT TO MARINE HAZARDS...SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. $$ AGUIRRE