000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON SEP 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0900 UTC SEP 8 POST-TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 
27.4N 118.3W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 
MB. NORBERT WAS MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION 
REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER. NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER 
COOLER WATER IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 95/96W N OF 11N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THIS WAVE WILL BE ONE OF INTEREST TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE 
WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY 
HELP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N102W TO 10N112W TO 
13N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W 
AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO S OF POST-TROPICAL 
NORBERT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER 
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE 
WATERS W OF 120W. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 11N112W AND THE OTHER NEAR 11N100W. 
LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS SW MONSOON FLOW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE 
S OF THESE FEATURES WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN THIS AREA OF 
ENHANCED MONSOON FLOW. 

EVEN THOUGH NORBERT HAS BECOME A POST TROPICAL LOW...AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...TROPICAL MOISTURE E OF THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 
THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR ELEVATED CHANCES FOR 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY SWELL GENERATED FROM NORBERT WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 
HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL 
FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER 
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. 

$$ 
AL