000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0900 UTC SEP 7 HURRICANE NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 25.7N 
116.4W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 983 MB. 
NORBERT WAS MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. NORBERT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY TODAY...AND 
WEAKEN TO A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MON AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED NEAR 95/96W N OF 11N...MOVING W AT 
15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
INTERACTING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ONE TO WATCH WITH 
INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE 
INTERACTION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION. 
 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N98W TO 12N110W TO 
13N122W TO 10N136W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 210 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE NE OF HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE 
ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH 
FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR 
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. 

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-7 
FT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 
INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL HELP 
DEVELOP A PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS 
PERTURBATION WILL HELP INCREASE SW MONSOON FLOW INTO THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...AND THIS ENHANCED MONSOON FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO THE 8-
9 FT RANGE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BY EARLY MON. 

$$
AL