000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN SEP 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0300 UTC SEP 7 HURRICANE NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 
115.5W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 977 MB. 
NORBERT WAS MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE CENTER. 
NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS IT MOVES NW WEST 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 11N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE 
THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 12N98W TO 
08N112W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N112W TO 12N135W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
AND 90 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE NE OF HURRICANE NORBERT MOVING ACROSS NW 
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS ENHANCING HEAVY RAIN AND 
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH SUN. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO 
LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-7 
FT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS 
COMBINED WITH 20 KT GAP WINDS MAY ALLOW SEAS TO APPROACH 8 FT 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN NIGHT. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP NEAR 11N108W SUN NIGHT...AND ENHANCED SW MONSOON FLOW 
COMBINED WITH AMBIENT SW SWELL WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 
FT SUN NIGHT AND MON.

$$
MUNDELL