000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062102
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT SEP 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 2100 UTC SEP 6 HURRICANE NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 
114.8W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. 
NORBERT WAS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S AND 30 NM N  
SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT. 
NORBERT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUN...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS IT MOVES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 91W N OF 10N...MOVING NEAR 15 KT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIED  CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
INTERACTING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N99W TO 
08N112W. IT RESUMES FROM 13N113W TO 14N125W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W-
98W...WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W-92W...AND 45 NM OF 
LINE FROM 08N103W TO 07N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 120W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE 
NORBERT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL INTO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL HELP TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
TSTM ACTIVITY TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST 
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH MON. 

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN 
THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED SW AND NW 
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 24 HRS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
15N95W TO 14N96W...THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN NIGHT. MIXED SW AND SE 
SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN S OF 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W SUN. 

$$
AGUIRRE/MUNDELL