000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061603 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 1500 UTC SEP 6 HURRICANE NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 
114.1W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 960 MB. 
NORBERT WAS MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 120 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 75 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES. NORBERT FORECAST TO UNDERGO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES 
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM PER LATEST NHC FORECAST. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO 
HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 90W N OF 10N...MOVING NEAR 15 KT. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 
08N112W. IT RESUMES FROM 13N114W TO 13N126W TO 13N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 
THE TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 06N88W TO 07N91W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 08N97W TO 08N99W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN HELP 
TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTM ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD 
ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THESE AREAS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST 
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HRS. NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
20N125W TO 10N137W THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE 
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SE OF THE SAME LINE THE 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE JUST THE OPPOSITE WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT TO INCLUDE THAT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE 
NORBERT.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN 
THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED SW AND NW 
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 24 HRS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
15N95W TO 14N96W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE 
CONDITIONS DIMINISH LATE SUN NIGHT. ALSO WITH RESPECT TO 
SWELLS...MIXED SW AND SE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE SEAS TO 
8 FT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA S OF ABOUT 03N W 
OF 125W THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN TO S OF 02S BETWEEN 109W AND 120W 
IN 24 HRS...AND TO S OF 00N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W IN 48 HRS. 

$$
AGUIRRE