000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT SEP 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 0300 UTC SEP 06 
WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. NORBERT IS 
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. NORBERT IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY 
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN OVER 
COOLER WATER N OF 25N AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE IS ENHANCED BY 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N93W TO 
08N103W TO 10N11W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N113W TO 10N130W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W 
AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
TSTMS. THESE TSTMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO 
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CABO PULMO NATIONAL PARK... 
LOCATED NEAR 24N110W...REPORTED 195 MM OR 7.7 INCHES OF RAIN 
THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 32N137W TO 
NEAR 26N125W. 
 
ASIDE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT...THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE 
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS AND SUPPORTS GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY 
BE 5-7 FT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

$$
MUNDELL