000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI SEP 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT CENTERED NEAR 23.6N 112.2W AT 2100 UTC SEP 05 
WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 966 MB. NORBERT IS 
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 
KT WITH GUSTS OF 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY 
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
THROUGH SUN...WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES N 
OF 25N AND MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE SEE  
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 12N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE  
ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 11N90W TO 
09N110W... THEN CONTINUES FROM 13N113W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 
90W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
TSTMS. THESE TSTMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO 
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CABO PULMO NATIONAL PARK... 
LOCATED NEAR 24N110W...REPORTED 195 MM OR 7.7 INCHES OF RAIN 
THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 32N137W TO 
NEAR 26N125W. 
 
ASIDE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT...THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE 
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS AND SUPPORTING GENTLE 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY 
BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

$$
MUNDELL