000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 1500 UTC SEP 05 HURRICANE NORBERT WAS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N 
112.1W WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 970 MB. 
NORBERT WAS MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 80 KT WITH GUSTS OF 100 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM NE AND SW 
QUADRANTS...WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM NW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 210 
NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN AN OUTER RAIN BAND WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N111W 
TO 25N110W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 21N108W. THE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM DURING THE MORNING ALSO REVEALS VERY COLD 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST NHC 
ADVISORY FORECASTS NORBERT TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W N OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE WAVE IS ENHANCED SOME BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS 
NE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N94W TO 
08N109W. IT CONTINUES FROM 13N116W TO 10N132W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 81W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 99W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 119W AND 123W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
TSTMS. THESE TSTMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO 
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN THESE AREAS FOR MORE DETAILS. NW OF A 
LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N124W TO 10N135W THE 
UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RATHER DRY AND STABLE ALLOWING 
FOR NO SIGNIFICANT TO PRESENT OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. AT 
THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 32N137W TO NEAR 26N125W. 
 
ASIDE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT...THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24-48 
HRS...AND IS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT 
RANGE. SEAS TO 8 FT IN CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS ARE CONFINED 
TO THE FAR SOUTHERN S OF 02N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. THE SW 
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH A SE SWELL COMPONENT BY 24 
HRS...AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHIFTING 
TO S OF 02N BETWEEN 110W-120W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE SEAS 
GENERATED BY NORBERT AND THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL...SEAS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

$$
AGUIRRE