000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI SEP 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 22.0N 111.1W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 05 
MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT 
GUSTS 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF CENTER. THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS 
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT THEN 
MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA 
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N98W TO 10N105W...THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 15N113W TO 12N120W TO 12N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
12N127W TO 12N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN 
THESE AREA. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 20N84W AND THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 02S80W IS ENHANCING 
VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT JUST INLAND OF MAZATLAN MEXICO EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS OVER NORBERT AND N OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N120W TO A 
SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N130W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY 
LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT MORNING.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 02N WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 
SAT...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL