000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU SEP 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 21.2N 110.8W 970 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 04 
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT 
GUSTS 100 KT. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO 
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN 
MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA 
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N105W...THEN CONTINUES 
FROM 16N110W TO 11N122W TO 11N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N AND 120 NM S 
OF THE AXIS E OF 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS 
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN 
THESE AREA. REFER TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 20N84W AND THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 02S80W IS ENHANCING 
VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT JUST INLAND OF MAZATLAN MEXICO EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS OVER NORBERT AND N OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N120W TO A 
SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N130W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY 
LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT MORNING.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 04N WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 
SAT...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL