000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041527 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 20.7N 110.4W 978 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 04 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N106W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N111W TO 12N117W TO 12N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 13N TO 15N AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE NORBERT IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHERE IT WILL FUEL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N82W AND NEAR THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 02S80W IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA OF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION HERE IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW NEAR ECUADOR WILL MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE E-W TROUGHING ACROSS S AMERICA TODAY...WITH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REMAINING DIFFLUENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH SAT. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT JUST INLAND OF MAZATLAN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER NORBERT AND N OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N120W TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 18N130W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM NEAR HERMOSILLO MEXICO NEAR 29N110W THROUGH 28N120W TO THE SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N140W BY SAT MORNING. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA FROM SW OREGON TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AS WILL THE REMAINS OF MARIE WHICH ARE SITTING NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 29N143W. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DISRUPTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER S CENTRAL WATERS...REACHING AS FAR AS 08N ALONG 120W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT MOVING BACK S OF THE EQUATOR BY EARLY FRI. $$ SCHAUER