000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040904
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU SEP 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 109.7W AT 04/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT ABOUT 145 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER OVER ALL 
QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 112W-114W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 
18N103W TO 10N123W. THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO 
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY 
THEN MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 9N91W 8N96W TO 
10N100W THEN RESUMES W OF NORBERT NEAR 16N122W 13N128W TO 
10N135W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N E OF 80W TO OVER PANAMA 
AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N 
OF 10N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-93W AND WITHIN 
120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOW IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER W PANAMA NEAR 
08N81W IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA OF DEEP 
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 16N129W COVERING THE AREA 
W OF NORBERT AND EXTENDING A WEAK RIDGE AXIS N OF NORBERT TO THE 
CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY 
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI MORNING AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. TRADE 
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE REGION WITH DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY IS FLOW DISRUPTED. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL OF 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 7N BETWEEN 106W AND 
130W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING 
BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY FRI.

$$
PAW