000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU SEP 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE NORBERT NEAR 19.9N 109.8W 982 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 04 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 90 NM FROM CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 160 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS 
IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
WHILE MOVING NW THU...THEN NEARLY PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE PENINSULA FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N94W TO 10N103W... 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N107W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
107W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM HURRICANE NORBERT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W AND THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 00N80W IS 
ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N OF NORBERT FROM 25N105W TO 
22N120W TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N130W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL 
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI MORNING AND WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE OUTSIDE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE REGION WITH DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DISRUPTED. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 
FT BY EARLY FRI.

$$
MUNDELL