000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED SEP 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 19.6N 109.2W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 
03 MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E AND 60 NM 
W SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 100 NM N AND 150 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT. 
THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE MOVING 
NW THU...THEN NEARLY PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA 
FRI. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N94W TO 10N103W... 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N110W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 00N80W IS 
ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N OF NORBERT FROM 24N107W TO 
22N120W TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N130W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL 
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI MORNING AND WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE OUTSIDE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE REGION WITH DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DISRUPTED. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL 8-10 FT SW SWELL S OF 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 
FT BY EARLY FRI.

$$
SCHAUER