000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED SEP 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 19.6N 108.8W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC 
SEP 03 MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
WERE 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED 
WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT. NORBERT SHOULD TURN TOWARD 
THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRI. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 06N94W TO 
08N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N111W TO 09N136W. ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 09N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W AND 89W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W 
AND 99W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N80W AND NEAR THE COAST OF ECUADOR NEAR 00N80W 
IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA OF MOISTURE 
POOLED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
CONVECTION HERE IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW 
NEAR ECUADOR WILL MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE E-W TROUGHING ACROSS S 
AMERICA THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD REMAINING 
DIFFLUENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRI.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT NEAR CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS OVER NORBERT AND N OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N120W TO A SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N127W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT 
NORTHWARD...EXTENDING FROM MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 25N107W THROUGH 
24N120W TO 11N140W BY FRI MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER 
NEAR THE SAME POSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AS WILL THE REMAINS OF MARIE 
WHICH ARE SITTING NEAR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
30N141W. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE 
DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DISRUPTED. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT OVER S 
CENTRAL WATERS...REACHING AS FAR AS 09N ALONG 120W. THIS SWELL 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT MOVING 
BACK S OF THE EQUATOR BY EARLY FRI.

$$
SCHAUER