000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED SEP 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT NEAR 19.6N 107.6W AT 03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 
120 NM W-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 NM S-SE OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 
107W-108.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE 
AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 105W-112W. NORBERT IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
BECOMING A HURRICANE ON THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ245 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W ALONG 8N91W TO 9N97W THEN 
RESUMES SW OF NORBERT NEAR 16N111W ALONG 12N127W TO 9N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-8N BETWEEN 78W-83W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 83W-90W...AND FROM MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 88W-
92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
11N BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
STAGNANT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN TROPICAL STORM 
NORBERT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE 
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AND MAINLY E OF THE 100W OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 21N108W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE SE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST TO PANAMA 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TRADE WINDS WILL 
REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE N AND NW OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL BETWEEN 112W AND 133W SHOULD PUSH 
NORTHWARD THEN SHIFT EAST...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 9 FT S OF 6N 
IN S/CENTRAL WATERS BY WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

$$
PAW