000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 17.5N 106.5W 1004 
MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 02 MOVING N-NE OR 020 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS EXTENDED WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND IN THE 
REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W. TO THE 
NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 21N TO 25N. AN 
ALTIMETER PASS FROM 13Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND AROUND 240 
NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 KT SW 
WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY 
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO 
14N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N136W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 82W...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM 
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM 
NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN 
FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR 
NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN 
ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION. 

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE 
REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
10N133W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S 
OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 132W THIS MORNING. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH 
NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 07N IN 
CENTRAL WATERS BY WED MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY 
THU.

$$
SCHAUER