000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020850
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL 
WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED ON THE 02/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 106W-112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 102W-110W. 
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT YET 
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OR PERSISTENCE FOR THE LOW TO 
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM. 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W TO 8N93W THEN RESUMES FROM THE 
1006 MB LOW NEAR 16N107W TO 18N115W TO 12N126W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS 
AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45/60 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 3N AND N OF 6N TO OVER 
PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 90W-100W 
AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
    
STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 
FROM 100W AND 120W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SEAS HEIGHTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE. 

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER 
TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 3N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W 
AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 7N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND 
135W WED INTO THU. 

$$
PAW