000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116W/117W FROM 10N-20N. THERE IS 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE 
INTERACTING. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE FAR W GULF 
OF MEXICO. THERE IS A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS TROPICAL 
WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE 
EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST 
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15.5N96W TO 16N104W TO 
11N116W TO 09N134W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 300 NM 
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
    
A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N139W. ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA. 

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 
FROM 121W TO 101W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. THE STRONG 
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. 

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 01N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND 
S OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W BY WED MORNING. 

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL