000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 110W FROM 08N TO 21N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 09N112W TO 
08N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
EXTENDS BEYOND 09N140W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS SW MONSOON FLOW IS INCREASING AS A RESULT 
OF FALLING PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE INCREASED SW MONSOON FLOW IS HELPING FOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE INTERACTION OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS HELPED FOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N 
AND 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...    

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N137W. ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER 
THE FAR NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT EARLY MON.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
41N152W EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. 

THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH 
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT 
OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W BY TUE MORNING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL